How many books to print?

I recently had an interesting exchange with a member of the LinkedIn Books and Writers group who asked the question above. He pointed out that the answer depends. "There are two factors that should be considered when deciding upon the optimum inventory level: projected volume and velocity of book sales."

I responded by asking why a self-publishing writer would print any books at all. Why not use a print-on-domand (POD) service?

He said there are many reasons for a small initial print run. "First, you can reduce the printing cost significantly so you become more profitable. Serious publishers need books to send for reviews, samples, and to have on hand to fill small orders quickly. In addition, most retailers won't take on POD books, nor will most reviewers review them."

I asked him if his original question should therefore be one for a publisher. It's not a question for self-published writers. After all, no commercial publisher is going to consult with the writer about the initial print run. If you are an individual writer pretending to be an independent publisher and having your books printed and bound by a job printer, I can see the point of the question. But how many retailers and reviewers today are fooled by that charade? So, again, why not use a POD publisher and order enough copies to send out reviews, samples, and to fill small orders quickly?

Part of the problem he pointed out is that we were talking about different things. "I think the confusion is in the definition of POD publishing and digital printing—they are not the same thing. POD is a means to publish that may use digital printing. My point is addressed to the more serious author/publisher who uses digital or offset printing and not POD. That author has a much better chance of selling books more profitably (without any charade) than one with a POD publisher. Those currently using a POD publisher could use your strategy—it is not wrong, just not as profitable. There is no one way to market books, and the author is always the promoter, regardless of what publisher is used"

I asked about the difference in profitability. As an example, if an author can buy 50 copies of a 350-page, perfect-bound, paperback with a four-color full bleed cover for $257 from a POD publisher, what would the same number of copies of such a book cost from a digital or offset printer?

His answer was unusually helpful: "Your unit cost is $5.14—if your book is $14.95 and you sell through a distributor (trade or non-bookstore) they will take 60 - 65%. If they take 60% ($5.98) you make $ .84 per book. If you print 1000 (a reasonable minimum quantity) the unit cost is $3.85, so you make $2.13 per book. If you sell 120 books you have made more than the $257. Or, look at it differently. If you sell 1000 books and print them your way, 50 at a time, your cost is $5140 and your profit is $840. Print 1000 at a time for $3850 and your profit is $2130. Which do you prefer?"

There seems to be some confusion here between revenue and profit (what's left after you've paid for the books) but I pointed out that the unknown in this example is how many of those 1,000 copies the author will be able to sell through a distributor, website, personal appearances, etc. Using his figures, it looks as if the author would have to sell 644 copies just to break even ($5.98 x 644 = $3851).

The example also ignores all other costs of buying 1,000 copies of a book: the cost of the money tied up in inventory, the value of the time spent fulfilling orders, the cost of storage if nothing free is available. And every book never sold pushes up the total cost. (I'm ignoring the costs of marketing, promotion, shipping, which of course you can't.)

So yes, selling 1,000 copies of a book earns that nets $2.13 a copy is more profitable than selling 1,000 copies of a book that nets 84¢ a copy. But how many self-published authors sell as many as 644 copies of their book? The figure that's thrown around—and I would love to see something more authoritative—is that the average self-published book sells fewer than 150 copies. I've never met a self-published author who's sold out a 1,000-copy print run but I've met any number who have cartons of unsold books in the garage.

We parted amiably: "We have both stated our positions—if others are following this thread they can use our calculations as they apply to their circumstances and make their choices. But a serious self-publisher with good content and quality, aggressive marketing and sales to non-bookstore buyers can easily sell 644 books. If you don't think you can do that, then your model works fine."

I think many (most?) writers thinking of self-publishing their books are blinded by hope. They do think they can easily sell 644 books ... 1,000 books ... 10,000 books. Virtually all of them are wrong.

This past week I went to an author talk at RJ Julia Booksellers a wonderful independent bookstore in Madison, CT. Jenny Milchman talked about her experiences as a writer and her new novel, Ruin Falls, and Carla Buckley talked about hers and her novel, The Deepest Secret.

The two authors, who are friends, are on a book tour to publicize the new books. All but three of the perhaps two dozen members of the audience were women of a certain age, which says, I believe, something about who buys and reads books (or who buys and reads Milchman's and Buckley's books). While they talked somewhat about the inspirations about their new books, they spent more time talking about their experiences as writers.

Milchman wrote nine novels before she was able to attract an agent for the last, which became Cover of Snow. It took 21 months between the publisher's acceptance to publication, during which time the publishing machine was in operation: copy editing, cover design, internal design, obtaining cover blurbs, sending out galleys to bookstores and reviewers, setting up press events, etc., etc. During the 21 months, Milchman was supposed to be writing another novel so that a year after the first’s publication, another would be available for the market. Her agent thought Milchman's novel number 7 might sell based on the sale of number 8, and Milchman wrote number 9. The publisher rejected both numbers 7 and 9, so Ruin Falls is her 10th.

Their talks reinforced a lesson I already knew: publisher want to slot writers into a certain niche. No one—not publishers, not booksellers, not readers—wants to be confused over what a writer is like. This is a Jody Picoult, a Daniele Steele, a J.K. Rowling book. And a brand-name writer has an audience that will buy everything they publish without reserve. The editor's job is to find writers who will regularly produce manuscripts that are similar enough for readers to buy without being shocked by unfamiliar content.

I asked Milchman and Buckley how much editing their books received from their agents and their editors. They both said they had extensive edits from both.

I asked if they signed multi-book deals. Milchman had not. Carla had signed a two-book deal. For her second book, she created nine proposals—detailed outlines of the stories, character descriptions, back stories—all of which the publisher rejected. Almost in desperation, she came up with another idea, submitted a two-page proposal the publisher bought and which became The Deepest Secret.

I asked about titles (a subject about which I am struggling at this moment) and they were able to tell good stories about the problem of finding an acceptable title. Milchman’s editor had real reservations about Ruin Falls, but that was the working title and although Milchman suggested a gazillion other possibilities, the original became the title almost by default. Buckley had many of the same problems with one of her books. The foreign editions of that book all have very different titles because the local publishers were no more happy with the working title than the American publisher. 

After the author talk, I chatted with the bookstore staff. I asked how long the store keeps a title in stock. It might be months—or in the case of a classic, years—or it could be as short as a week. Self-published books have virtually no place in bookstores because their authors are not prepared to send books on consignment and pay the shipping to and from the stores. The stores generally have no basis on which to buy a self-published book, no reviews in Publishers Weekly, no advance reading copies, none of the marketing support that a major publisher offers. Even if a bookstore were willing to buy self-published books outright, how would the staff know what will sell?

All in all, an exceptionally stimulating and interesting evening.

Advertisements for Myself

Self-published authors have many reasons to self-publish, starting with the inability to interest an agent or a publisher in their work. Agents and publishers, of course, look at a manuscript as a product; it's something to sell. If they don't believe the product will sell, they won't represent it or publish it. The usual reasons they don't believe it will sell include: It's too much like something else on the market (or that we're about to publish). It's not like anything else on the market (so there's no market for it). It needs so much editing, it's not worth our investment to make it publishable (r.i.p. Maxwell Perkins). It doesn't appeal to me. There are a million reasons not to publish a book by an unknown author, very few reasons to publish.

Thanks to technological change, however, authors who could not find an agent or a publisher in the past and who had to lay out several thousand dollars and end up with a garage full of unsalable books—i.e., they went to a vanity publisher—can now publish their books for very little money, keep the books in print forever, and print one only when a reader orders it. Or, with an e-book, not print at all.

Self-publishing also means that authors have to do all the marketing grunt work themselves—finding reviewers and getting the word out about themselves and their books.  I have learned that many bloggers who review self-published books will, if their reading list is overwhelming, agree to an e-mail interview, and I have been taking advantage of every opportunity offered.

I have now been interviewed by HamletHub, A Writing Primate, and more that have not yet been posted, as well as been reviewed by reviewers who have put them on the Amazon site. I am grateful for these opportunities to let the world know more about me and my books.

Book writing, publishing, promoting sources

Signing books in Newtown

In preparation for my talk at the library in Newtown, I created the following as a handout for the attendees, sites that can be useful in writing, publishing, and promoting your book:

www.nanowrimo.org This is NaNoWriMo’s home page. Register, which is free, and you have access to a wealth of writing tips, research help (under Forums), and a place to record your words every day to check your progress during November.

www.createspace.com Amazon’s self-publishing subsidiary. Register, and the site walks you through the process of registering your book, uploading the text and cover, and setting a price (all free). It offers extended distribution for a price, and has a link to the Kindle site to create a Kindle version.

www.smashwords.com I haven't used it, but it's a popular way to publish ebooks at no charge. The site offers a ton of info and there's a blog post you might look at if you're considering an ebook. 

http://www.theindieview.com/indie-reviewers/ This is a list of sites and individuals who review self-published books. To be on the list, reviewers have to be actively posting reviews, review ebooks, not charge for reviews, not be affiliated to a publisher, have submission guidelines for an Indie author to submit an ebook, and put a link back to TheIndieView on their site. Authors have to vet each site to be sure that (a) it is appropriate for their book’s genre and (b) their submissions follow the site's guide.

  

http://www.publishersweekly.com/pw/diy/instructions/index.html Publishers Weekly Select costs $149 to buy a brief listing in this monthly supplement. With the listing, you can send two copies of your book, which PW may or may not review, and, if reviewed, may not be positive. A Kirkus Indie Review is $425, but you can keep it private if you don’t like it.

Type “self-publish” into a Google search box and you’ll have 2,080,000 results in less than a second. There are success stories and advice, and while no one knows what will sell, you can increase the odds of sales success by (1) writing the best book you know how; ideally a book you yourself would like to read; (2) hiring a professional editor to edit the book; this costs money but everyone needs an editor; (3) hiring a professional cover and book designer; again, this costs money; (4) following the publisher’s requirements; this can be free; and (5) doing everything you can think of to reach readers.

No One Knows What Will Sell

I am putting the final touches on my new novel (now titled The Girl in the Photo) and am thinking about publishing, promotion, publicity--everything I can do to find readers. I self-published Getting Oriented and plan to do the same with the new book, but I follow the online discussions of the pros and cons of self-publishing versus traditional-publishing.

Recently someone posted the following on a thread I follow: "You've got an amazing, awesome, terrific book. It just needs a little editing and a good cover, and it'll be a hit. So someone says you should self-publish it in hopes of picking up a traditional publisher and getting published. A very common myth, and one many, many debut authors fall for." This provoked a lively and inconclusive debate. As one person wrote, "Today's publishing houses are parasites, not publishing firms. Back in the day,...publishers used to groom and nurture an author. For the past century they have simply latched onto the jugular and sucked the blood out of them to support their friends, family, prostitutes, and drug dealers. The only 'marketing' I've seen them actually do is blowing smoke...."

After more than 200 comments, it was clear that (a) a handful of self-published authors have been picked up by traditional publishers; (b) most of the people who comment on this thread are disgusted with traditional publishers; (c) many people think there is a trick (or a conspiracy) to publishing a best-selling book. I think there is a myth buried in the second sentence of the original post—with a little editing and a good cover your book will be a hit. If it were only that easy.

No one knows what will sell.

Like all generalities, of course, that's overstating the case. There are marquee authors whose books are virtually guaranteed to sell: Stephen King, Mary Higgins Clark, Norah Roberts, Clive Cussler, Janet Evanovich, etc., etc. I'm talking about the unknown writer who has actually written an amazing, awesome, terrific book. Take the recent case of Robert Galbraith, the author ofThe Cuckoo's Calling.

Galbraith, even with a terrific book and an agent's representation, had trouble finding a publisher. Time magazine found one editor who admitted turning it down. The few reviews of The Cuckoo's Calling were positive. Publishers Weekley called it "stellar"; Booklist called it "absorbing"; Library Journal called it "totally engrossing." But in the two months after it had been published here it had sold only 500 copies.

Then the Times of London revealed that "Robert Galbraith" is J.K. Rowling, the book shot to the top of the New York Times best seller list, and the publisher ordered 200,000 more copies printed. 

All this tends to confirm my belief that your book needs a terrific story, excellent writing, careful editing, clean page design, a great cover...and luck to sell well. I am sure that E.L. James never expected her Fifty Shade of Grey to sell as well as it did when she first published it as a print-on-demand book. (One could, I suppose, use that example to show that a terrific story and excellent writing are not always necessary to be a hit.)

My plan is to write the best book I can, self-publish it with a professionally-designed cover, offer it to reviewers and at a cut rate to early buyers, and trust that readers will tell their friends, "You've got to read this."

Publishers Weekly likes my novel

Until a year or so ago, Publishers Weekly had a policy not to review self-published books. With the publishing industry shifting under their feet, however, management apparently decided (a) there was money to be made from self-publishing writers, and (b) there might be worthwhile books in the flood of self-published titles. The magazine therefore established a quarterly "PW Select DIY Announcements" supplement.

For $149, an author can buy a listing (a brief book description plus a brief bio) in the supplement. In addition, and for the price, you can send two copies of your book to PW's reviewer along with your book's unique selling proposition. The reviewer selects 25 books from the pile to review. There's no guarantee your book will be selected, nor if selected that the review will be positive. You're not buying a review; all you're guaranteed is a listing. Nevertheless I thought my book was worth the investment and two copies.

The supplement appears Monday, and while I have not seen it, the review of Getting Oriented: A Novel About Japan, is already online. You can check it out at

http://www.publishersweekly.com/978-1-4635-2528-6

Self-publishing Saga, Part 1

I've given up trying to interest an agent in my novel, Getting Oriented, and have decided to self-publish. For one thing, it does not fit neatly into a genre, and that makes it difficult to sell to a commercial publisher. But aside from the fact that it is simply a good novel, I had not looked at the manuscript for more than a year, and the last time I looked, I thought it was polished and ready to go. Ha!

When I began rereading, I discovered that I tend to be the Village Explainer. In an attempt to make everything clear, I say the same thing twice in different words, or put in extraneous detail, or simply repeat myself. Going through the manuscript, I discovered I could cut 5 percent or so of the words with no damage to the meaning and a major improvement in the story's flow.

When my wife, who is also a writer, read the manuscript with a copy-editor's eye, she pointed out that I had fallen into the habit of using ellipses in place of commas or to suggest pauses in dialogue. I'd also not used commas when I needed them. I brought in a new shipment of commas and retired perhaps a hundred ellipses.

The tweaks we've made to the manuscript improve it considerably. The characters, the story, the setting are all the same. I do think that the careful reader who cares about punctuation, wordiness, and—both of you—the overuse of ellipses will enjoy the story even more.

Wally Wood

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